What is the market price for polyvinyl alcohol?

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For the Quarter Ending March 2024

North America

In Q1 2024, the North America region witnessed a consistent decrease in Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) prices. This decline can be attributed to several significant factors. Firstly, there was a notable decrease in demand from downstream industries, particularly the textile sector. This weakened demand exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the availability of ample inventories in the market further contributed to the declining prices. 

The USA experienced the maximum price changes during this quarter. The overall trend in the US market was negative, with prices decreasing by 35% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Moreover, there was a 3% decrease in prices between the first and second halves of the quarter.

This downward trend in prices can be attributed to the weak demand from the textile industry, which is a significant consumer of PVA. Furthermore, the availability of abundant inventories in the market and the lack of significant disruptions in the supply chain also played a role in pushing prices downwards.

The quarter-ending price for Polyvinyl Alcohol in the USA stood at USD 2190 per metric ton, delivered (DEL) Texas. This reflects the overall negative sentiment in the pricing environment for PVA in the North America region during Q1 2024.

Europe

Polyvinyl Alcohol prices in the Europe region for Q1 2024 have experienced a significant increase. The market has been influenced by various factors, leading to rising prices. In the Netherlands, the market has seen the maximum price changes. The overall trend in the market has been positive, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter.

One of the major reasons for the price increase is the rising demand from downstream industries, particularly the textile sector. This increased demand has resulted in higher inquiries and a need for more inventories. Additionally, production costs in Europe have remained high due to the ongoing heating season, leading to higher production costs and subsequently higher prices.

Furthermore, insufficient supply has been reported, with longer shipping routes and higher freight rates causing delays and supply shortages. This has further driven up prices in the market.

In terms of seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a higher price increase compared to the second half. However, overall, the quarter recorded a significant price change of 13% compared to the previous quarter.

As of the end of the quarter, the price of Polyvinyl Alcohol in the Netherlands market was reported at USD 3370 per metric ton CFR Rotterdam. This marks a notable increase from the same quarter last year.

Overall, the pricing environment for Polyvinyl Alcohol in the Europe region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with increasing prices driven by higher demand, production costs, and supply shortages.

APAC

Polyvinyl Alcohol prices experienced a surge in the quarter in China due to heightened demand from the textile industry. Manufacturers maintained operational stability, with no significant disruptions in the supply chain. Although the textile sector saw a year-on-year increase in profits, overall operating revenue saw a slight decrease. International market demand declined, while low coal prices contributed to reduced production costs. Expectations of further increases in upstream crude oil prices are anticipated to drive up Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) prices. Moreover, the prices of feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer rose, and Methanol contract prices surged, impacting production costs. 

The manufacturing sector exhibited expansion yet demand from the textile industry remained subdued compared to pre-Covid levels. China's textile and clothing exports witnessed a decline in 2023, with the domestic fashion sector facing challenges due to weak consumption. These concerns were deliberated upon during the annual meeting of the Chinese Parliament in Beijing. Additionally, it is foreseen that Acetic Acid prices will likely rise.

Furthermore, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed an increase in February 2024 compared to January 2024, signalling expansion in the manufacturing sector. However, demand from downstream industries such as textiles remained subdued, albeit showing some improvement compared to the previous year but still falling short of pre-Covid levels. Last year, China's exports of textiles and clothing totaled €269.4 billion, marking declines of 8.1% in textiles and 2.9% in clothing compared to the strong growth observed in 2022.

For the Quarter Ending December 2023

North America

Polyvinyl Alcohol market in North America region in Q4 2023 witnessed a stable market situation with high supply. The demand from downstream industries remained firm, and the demand from the international market was expected to remain steady.

However, the prices of PVA experienced a decline of 3% in December 2023 due to heavy destocking market activity and lower demand from downstream and international markets. The production cost was expected to rise due to the increasing coal prices. In contrast, the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol in the USA increased by 2% in Q4 2023 due to low inventory levels in the market, leading to a rise in PVA prices. The natural gas prices were expected to be on the lower end, and the demand from the downstream textile industry was expected to remain firm in the USA.

The latest price of Polyvinyl Alcohol DEL Texas in the USA in Q4 2023 was USD 2122/MT. Despite the stable market situation, the prices of PVA experienced a decline of 1% from November to December 2023 in the USA. The significant reasons for the market trends in Q4 2023 were heavy destocking market activity, low inventory levels in the market, and rising coal prices affecting the production cost.

APAC

The last quarter of 2023 saw a decline in the Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) market in the APAC region. Several factors impacted the market, including heavy destocking activity, high levels of inventories, and rising production costs due to an increase in natural gas prices. Japan witnessed the most significant changes in prices during this quarter, with a -14% decrease from the previous quarter.  Additionally, the Japanese market experienced a -12% decrease in prices during the second half of the quarter compared to the first half. The weak performance of the textile industry and high levels of inventories in the market contributed to the declining prices in Japan. The prices of imports from China remained stable, leading to constant prices of imports and subdued prices of domestic inventories of PVA. Moreover, the prices of PVA were expected to decrease due to the destocking activity in the market and lower demand from the downstream industry. The prices of PVA in the APAC region declined by 36% from the same quarter in the previous year. The quarter ending price of PVA FOB Tokyo in Japan was USD 1636/MT.

Europe

The current quarter of 2023 (Q4) saw a bearish market for Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) in the Europe region. The top three factors that impacted the market were heavy destocking market activity, high inventory levels, and an anticipated fall in import prices from the Asian market. The low to moderate demand from the downstream textile industry in both Netherlands and Germany resulted in lower prices of imports from China, the top supplier of PVA to the Netherlands. However, production costs are expected to rise due to the increasing Natural Gas prices, leading to higher LNG costs. The Netherlands saw a significant decrease in PVA prices due to reduced demand from the textile industry and destocking activities towards the year-end. The trend for Netherlands in Q4 2023 was a -5% decrease in prices compared to the previous quarter, with a price of USD 2868/MT of Polyvinyl Alcohol CFR Rotterdam in Netherlands at the end of the quarter. The seasonality and correlation of prices were not mentioned in the provided text. In conclusion, the bearish market for PVA in Europe during Q4 2023 was mainly driven by low demand and high inventory levels, leading to lower prices of imports from China and an anticipated fall in import prices from the Asian market.

For the Quarter Ending September 2023

North America

In the US market, the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol remained relatively stable and range-bound throughout the quarter. This steadiness was influenced by weak cost support from the feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in the US market. Despite this, the market maintained adequate inventories, and there was sustained demand from the textile industry. Furthermore, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) value for the US market stayed below the threshold throughout Q3, signalling a decline in the manufacturing sector over the same period. Additionally, the prices of natural gas remained stable throughout the quarter. Looking ahead, there is an anticipation of price increases in the near future. This expectation is based on the projected rise in prices of feedstock Acetic Acid, and the stability in natural gas prices is expected to persist, contributing to increased production costs. The combined effect of these factors suggests a potential upward shift in Polyvinyl Alcohol prices in the upcoming period. Moreover, an expected increase in demand from the international market, particularly with the arrival of the festival season in the Asian market, adds further momentum to this outlook. 

Asia Pacific

The price of Polyvinyl alcohol experienced an increase throughout the third quarter of 2023, driven by a rise in the prices of feedstock Vinyl Acetate monomer. This surge was influenced by low inventories in the market, prompting sellers to withhold inventories with the anticipation of further price increases. However, despite this positive market development, demand from the downstream textile industry remained on the lower side during this quarter. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) value stood at 50.60 and 51.00, indicating expansion in manufacturing activity for two consecutive months in the quarter. Moreover, the market witnessed low inventories, leading to inventories being offered at discounted prices. Looking ahead, there is an expectation of further price increases in the upcoming months. This projection is based on the anticipation of increased stocking activity in the market due to the arrival of festivals. Additionally, the prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer are expected to rise soon, further contributing to the potential upward trajectory of Polyvinyl alcohol prices.

Europe

In the European market, the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol remained relatively stable and range-bound throughout this quarter. Moreover, there was no significant improvement in demand from the downstream textile industry. The slight increment in the initial period can be attributed to the rising prices of imports, particularly from the Chinese market. Low inventory levels in China led to an increase in the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol imports from China, and given Europe's substantial reliance on Chinese imports, prices in Europe followed a similar trend. However, the negative market development in the second half was primarily escalated by lower production costs, as natural gas prices remained stable. Additionally, there were adequate inventory levels in the market, despite demand from downstream industries such as textile. In August 2023, the Eurozone's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slight increase to 43.5 from the previous month's 42.7, indicating consecutive months of contractions in the third quarter. Looking ahead, there is an expectation of a slight improvement in the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol in the European market in the upcoming months. This projection is based on the anticipated rise in prices of feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), indicating a potential positive shift in the market dynamics.

For the Quarter Ending June 2023

North America

The prices of Polyvinyl alcohol in the US market have shown variable market trends. In the first half of Q2, prices incremented, and then in the second half of Q2, prices decremented. This was due to the constant declining prices of feedstock Acetic Acid. Additionally, Furthermore, the prices of Natural gas have decrement throughout Q2, indicating decrement in the production cost. Additionally, there was an adequate inventory level in the market to meet the demand from the downstream industry, like the textile industry. Moreover, the plants were operating at a slower rate with weak demand from the downstream industry, like textiles. Furthermore, demand from the international market, especially from the European market, has also declined, indicating negative market sentiments. Additionally, the PMI value for the month of June was 49, 46.30 in May, and 48.4 for April, indicating the contraction of the manufacturing sector throughout Q2. Thus, as of June end of Q2, the prices of PVOH in the US market were stated at USD 2948/MT.

Asia-pacific

The Polyvinyl Alcohol market in China declined throughout Q2 due to low demand from a downstream industry like textiles. Furthermore, as of Q2, there was a constant decline in the prices of feedstock Acetic acid explaining the declining prices of PVOH. Additionally, the demand from the international market has declined amid global economic uncertainty. Furthermore, coal prices decremented, causing decrement in the input production cost. Moreover, the deflation problem and slow economic recovery in China created an overall pessimistic market view. Furthermore, the plants were operating at a slower rate amid weak downstream demand, and due to constantly declining prices, there were negative market sentiments as buyers were hesitant to procure large orders. There was a deflation problem in China as the inflation rate was stated at 0.1 in April, 0.2 in May, and nil in June. This was due to demand problems in China for both domestic and international markets. Therefore, as of June, the prices of PVOH in China were stated at USD 1866/MT.

Europe

In the European market, the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol have shown a bearish market throughout Q2. This was due to declining demand from the downstream industry like textiles as continued high inflation and rising interest rate, which continue to curb the purchasing power of end-stream industry consumers. Additionally, there was an adequate inventory level in the market to meet downstream demand. In Addition, due to the constant lowering of prices, there were negative market sentiments and hesitance in the market for procurement of large orders. Moreover, there was a free flow of cheap imports from the Asian market, with freight charges declining as of Q2, which led to an overflow of inventories in the market amid declining demand from the downstream industry. Furthermore, PMI for Germany for the second remained below 50 for June, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Thus, as of June end of Q2, the price of PVOH in the European market was stated at USD 3346/MT.

For the Quarter Ending March 2023

North America

In the North American region, Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVOH) prices continued their bearish rally during the first quarter of 2023 on the back of sluggish market fundamentals. Meanwhile, the feedstock VAM prices declined, providing limited cost pressure to the PVOH market. In terms of supply, local suppliers had sufficient stock on their shelves to meet the demand due to stable operating rates. However, market participants reported weak demand in the domestic and overseas markets owing to limited offtakes from downstream textile, paper, and food industries. After Federal Reserve increased its interest rates to curb the rising inflation in the country, the price increment in the commodities was not observed in the US. Consequently, the price of PVOH settled at USD 2780/MT FOB Texas as of March 31.

Asia- Pacific

During the first quarter of 2023, Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVOH) prices in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated an overall downward trend. In China, the PVOH market had a negative start to the quarter due to a decline in procurement from downstream industries such as textile, paper, and food industries. Market participants have reported ample material availability amid weak procurement rates. Production rates have remained stable, availing a firm inflow of PVOH in the spot market. Purchasing activities from Asian and European countries toned down amid weakened demand which resulted in fewer offtakes from the PVOH market, leaving market participants to clear their stocks at lower prices. Therefore, the PVOH prices for FOB Qingdao settled at USD 2240/MT on March 31.

Europe

In the European region, PVOH prices remained on a downswing during the first quarter of 2023, along with bearish market sentiments. Dwindling cost pressure over the PVOH market was there on the back of declining feedstock Vinyl Acetate monomer (VAM) prices. Despite a slowdown in factory activity, domestic suppliers had sufficient inventories with them due to a steady flow of cheaper imports from overseas markets. However, the demand from downstream textile, paper, and packaging industries remained sluggish, with limited instances of new orders of PVOH. Moreover, buyers were reported to have chosen a cautious stance and to be keeping an eye on the short-term market outlook to understand the fundamentals of pricing better. Because of this, some distributors were forced to trim their prices as market activity was not up to expectations so far. As a ripple effect, the prices of PVOH settled at USD 3100/MT FD Hamburg on March 31.

For the Quarter Ending December 2022

North America

US Polyvinyl Alcohol prices have declined substantially in Q4 2022. Consumer sentiment has declined in the US market in the last three months, which has been vindicated by the drop in US Manufacturing Purchasing Index (PMI) that dropped below 50 (i.e., 49.7) in November, signifying a contraction in manufacturing and industrial activity. The holiday season further contributed to the weak demand dynamics of several commodities, including Polyvinyl Alcohol. Imports have been ample on the US shores as the freight charges dropped sharply while the global demand sentiment has been sluggish, resulting in better availability for exports to the international market. While, the feedstock VAM prices remained weak, further easing the cost pressure on PVA. Thus, as of December 2022, Polyvinyl Alcohol prices have been assessed at USD 3200 per MT FOB Texas.

APAC

Polyvinyl Alcohol prices have continued their